Analysis of Winning Hands [Lester]

These are winning hands from an online double table tournament. I will post losing hands where I did the right thing, or the wrong thing shortly. I am bears826.

Dealer: Hand #54220415
Dealer: donniedabbles posts the small blind of 80
Dealer: bears826 posts the big blind of 160
Dealer: You have been dealt [6c As]
Dealer: PatrickO calls 160
Dealer: hopper65 folds
Dealer: Hambone68 folds
Dealer: nutshot2 calls 160
Dealer: HughLug calls 160
Dealer: chenoaboy calls 160
Dealer: donniedabbles calls 80
Dealer: bears826 checks

This is excellent for me. I am let into the hand for free with 960 in the pot.

Dealer: The flop is [Ac 6d 8d]

Wonderful! Two pair.

Dealer: donniedabbles checks
Dealer: bears826 bets 600

I bet here because with so many players sitting behind me, an Ace on the board, a flush draw and a generally aggressive table, I feel like someone will raise behind me. I am inviting a bit of action with my 2/3 pot sized bet, though and have to be careful if a diamond comes on the turn in case I am flat called. In the event that one person does call me with a flush draw, they are getting 1.3:1 on their money with 2:1 odds of hitting excluding a bet on the turn. Therefore a call by a flush draw without other players in the pot is a bad move. This hand also has a bit of deception, as I am betting out from the big blind position with many players behind me. Because the diamonds are out, it could look like I am trying to bet out on a semi-bluff flush draw, making the Ace holders out there willing to take an all-in risk when they are drawing to 3 cards (to pair their kicker card). That is horrible odds for them, but they can’t be sure of that. Since we’re in the middle stages of a dual table online tournament, I don’t have time to be worried about a set of 6’s (especially since I have a six), a set of 8’s or A8. I need to accumulate chips or else I’m dead anyway.

Dealer: PatrickO folds
Dealer: nutshot2 folds
Dealer: HughLug raises to 1,200

At this point I’m willing to go all-in and Hugh should be too. I have him on either a flush draw or an Ace with a good kicker. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had me beat though.

Dealer: chenoaboy folds
Dealer: donniedabbles folds
Dealer: bears826 raises to 2,650, and is all in
Dealer: HughLug calls 1,450
Dealer: bears826 shows [6c As]
Dealer: HughLug shows [Qh Ah]
Dealer: The turn is [9h]
Dealer: The river is [Ks]
Dealer: bears826 shows two pair, Aces and Sixes
Dealer: HughLug shows a pair of Aces
Dealer: bears826 wins the pot (6,260) with two pair, Aces and Sixes

Huge pot that I won because Hugh didn’t protect AQ, although it’s hard to protect AQ with two callers in before you pre-flop and more sitting behind you. I plain got lucky with the flop. Flush draw threat + Ace + Me having two pair = relatively hard for Hugh not to go broke on AQ in this tournament structure.


Dealer: Hand #54223036
Dealer: bears826 posts the small blind of 100
Dealer: PatrickO posts the big blind of 200
Dealer: You have been dealt [Ad As]
Dealer: Hambone68 folds
Dealer: nutshot2 folds
Dealer: HughLug raises to 400
Dealer: chenoaboy folds
Dealer: donniedabbles folds
Dealer: bears826 raises to 1,400

Hugh doesn’t have too many more chips and his raise signifies strength. He wouldn’t be trying to bluff or make a move here with the short stack. If he wanted to bluff, he’d have to have gone all in with force. Since I know he is strong enough to play, I can reraise all in and get his call. With his cards in this stage, I would have pushed all in anyway, not waiting for my reraise. Running into Aces is more forgiveable than letting someone else run over you. By raising all-in Hugh has two ways to win-- everyone folding or him winning a hand. Letting me push on him or allowing the blinds to enter cheaply takes away one way for him to win the pot. He could flat call with this hand, but at this stage he needs to start making moves and can't afford to play a waiting game.

Dealer: PatrickO folds
Dealer: HughLug calls 740, and is all in
Dealer: bears826 shows [Ad As]
Dealer: HughLug shows [4h 4d]
Dealer: Uncalled bet of 260 returned to bears826
Dealer: The flop is [2s Ac 8h]
Dealer: The turn is [5h]
Dealer: The river is [Kd]
Dealer: bears826 shows three of a kind, Aces
Dealer: HughLug shows a pair of Fours
Dealer: bears826 wins the pot (2,480) with three of a kind, Aces
Dealer: HughLug stands up

Dealer: Hand #54224177
Dealer: donniedabbles posts the small blind of 100
Dealer: bears826 posts the big blind of 200
Dealer: You have been dealt [8h 8c]
Dealer: PatrickO raises to 600
Dealer: Hambone68 folds
Dealer: nutshot2 folds
Dealer: chenoaboy folds
Dealer: donniedabbles calls 500
Dealer: bears826 calls 400

I am getting 400:1800 or 1:4.5 on this call and I will be in middle position. I need to be getting at least 22% on my money to make the call here based on straight pot odds—I probably have that. There are also great implied odds if I hit a set (people will be likely to pay me off) and minimized negative implied odds because I will fold if I do not hit a set if there are high cards on the flop.

Dealer: The flop is [7c Ah 8d]
Dealer: donniedabbles checks
Dealer: bears826 checks

The flop came rainbow (no flush draws) with a 7-8 connector. The only hand that beats me right now is AA. It’s within the realm of possibilities that PatrickO has AA, but I’m willing to lose middle set to top set in this fast tournament structure (can I really be afraid of that one hand anyway?). An open-ended straight is another hand that I might feel some heat with, but that’s not likely either given the pre-flop action (5,6? 6,9? 9,10?). I assume I’m comfortably in the lead and can slowplay the flop. Plus, PatrickO was the original raiser. There is a great chance he has an Ace and will make the standard lead bet, which I can either smooth call or reraise.

Dealer: PatrickO checks
Dealer: The turn is [7s]

I make my boat here. I pray that someone has a seven because unless they hit quads or is slowplaying AA masterfully (or stupidly), I’m getting all of their chips. This also completely eliminates the threat of a straight beating me on the river, which shouldn’t worry me too much to begin with, but gives me a little more confidence. I’m locked into the best hand unless someone is slowplaying my slowplay (not likely).

Dealer: donniedabbles bets 600
Dealer: bears826 calls 600

This call should set off warning signs to donnie.

Dealer: PatrickO folds

PatrickO does not have Aces.

Dealer: The river is [9d]
Dealer: donniedabbles checks
Dealer: bears826 bets 700

I’m convinced that donnie was taking a stab at the pot on the turn, possibly with something like A-x out of position. I need to bet an amount that gives him the right price to call with even a marginal hand. I also need to keep in mind that he only has 1350 chips left. He probably won’t be willing to go all in, or commit himself with a marginal call. Betting half of his stack seems reasonable, in retrospect, maybe only 1/3. It’s not much in comparison to the size of the pot.

Dealer: donniedabbles calls 700
Dealer: bears826 shows a full house, Eights full of Sevens
Dealer: donniedabbles mucks
Dealer: bears826 wins the pot (4,400) with a full house, Eights full of Sevens

Stay tuned for losing hands...