Liam / Ben: UFC 74 Picks [Liam]
Heavyweight Championship: Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Liam: I take Gonzaga to win this. In Randy's favor, he's never fought a stupid gameplan and I think Gabe Gonzaga is currently overhyped with regards to his "well-roundedness," but Randy just looks a little too frail and a little too scrawny to take on a fighter 16 years younger and 22 pounds heavier than him. Gonzaga's hands are slower, and subsequently I think he's open to lose it on his feet (decision, probably), but overall Gonzaga is the stronger and more solid package as a fighter; while in my opinion a better striker, Randy's true strength still remains his wrestling, and I don't think getting a highly-touted black belt BJJ Mundial champion on his back (even if he could manage to muscle him down) will do him much good. I see this ending with an old-man stumble from Randy, resulting in him being pinned against a cage wall, controlled and beaten into a ref stoppage by Gonzaga.
Gabe by ground-and-pound stoppage in the 1st.
Ben: As much love as I have for Randy for effectively retiring Tim Silvia, I can't see any way he wins this fight. Gonzaga simply does not go to decision. Dude finishes fights with such a vengeance, I think his manager must stash a gaggle of hookers in the dressing room before he heads out to the ring. Chillingly for Randy, his only chance would be to take this to decision. The Natural's striking is good, but not elite, and while he might get a takedown or two against GG, Gonzaga's BJJ is almost preposterously decorated. Just to add another layer of opacity to the dark cloud hovering over Randy's prospects, Gonzaga's shown a disturbing tendency to just knock fools out despite having arguably the strongest grappling credentials in the UFC. Finally, take a look at the challenger's initials. Telling. Good Game Randy.
Gonzaga by TKO, strikes on the ground, Rd. 3.
Welterweight: Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck
Liam: Josh Koscheck may be a brilliant wrestler, but you don't finish fights with wrestling alone. Until proven otherwise KOS is a "decision fighter," and GSP is one of the single WORST people in all of MMA to be scored against in a 15-minute sampling of abilities. Wherever the fight goes, GSP is competent and prepared-- there's next to nobody in the world who's as well-rounded in all aspects of MMA as him. As a result, I think Josh Koscheck's "style matchup" card as being the biggest "rock" in the rock/paper/scissors trinity of wrestling/striking/jiu-jitsu is completely null and void. Even Koscheck's usual strength advantage is probably for naught here, as GSP has shown himself to be freakishly strong in many of his past fights (way stronger than Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk... who GSP out-wrestled, incidentally). I think one of the big reasons people are even imagining any sort of x-factor to the clear on-paper advantage GSP enjoys has to do with Matt Serra. People think GSP has no heart, that the guy he lost to is some kind of a mark. I think Matt Serra may be the single unluckiest and most underrated (great) fighter in all of the sport. Nobody talks about the fact that in his last UFC defeat Matt Serra very nearly knocked out Karo Parisyan in the EXACT same fashion he took out St. Pierre. This fight will truly be the litmus test for how far almuni of "The Ultimate Fighter" have come, and the measure of GSP's real fighting spirit, but I see GSP hurting KOS badly on a takedown attempt, using his size and reach to keep him down, and stopping him by ground-and-pound or a gimme submission.
GSP by submission (RNC) in the 2nd.
Ben: This fight strikes me as way less interesting as people think. GSP's skills overlap with no obvious gaps save a lack of viciousness--he's almost too clinical. Fortunately for GSP, Koscheck couldn't even muster some aggression against a sick and overrated Diego Sanchez. Kos has speed, but his striking is fairly conventional. He's also lacking Matt Hughes's retard strength and GSP's wrestling is too strong to imagine Kos might be able to lay and pray his way through this one. I see a couple fairly lackluster rounds before GSP lands a kick or knee to counter a Koscheck shot in the final round.
GSP by TKO in the 3rd.
Lightweight: Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane
Liam: Huerta versus another UFC newcomer. I think Roger Huerta is overrated and begging to lose, but I don't think an octagon first-timer will be the one to make it happen. Apparently Crane has some ground game, but I don't think we'll be seeing him use it other than defensively; say, trying for a submission when Huerta over-extends himself in an attempt to finish the fight after winning a standing exchange.
Huerta is too active and aggressive on his feet to allow his opponent opportunities to take the initiative and shoot for a takedown-- in addition, as I said before I don't think Huerta will take this fight down unless baited by a hurt opponent. As usual, Huerta will impose a stand-up fight and out-work his opponent (his general M.O.) to win by decision.
Huerta by unanimous decision in the 3rd.
Lightweight: Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Liam: I won't lie, I had to watch tapes on Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino... he seems a very aggressive and explosive fighter, but he's also surprisingly technical-- there's a calculated edge to his wildness you don't generally see in the younger and more "physical" fighters. This being said, Joe Stevenson will beat him. Joe Stevenson has an almost unworkably compact and low-centered build as a ground fighter, he's prodigiously talented, and his composure in a fight is incredible. I think Stevenson is the future of the lightweight division, and I see him becoming extremely dominant in a few years. Still, I think this will be a war, fought largely in the clinch and in guard... but eventually Stevenson will get the sub.
Stevenson by submission in the 2nd.
Middleweight: Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote
Liam: I don't know much about Patrick Cote other than he comes from the Loiseau / St. Pierre high-kicking rat pack, and he's supposed to be a good striker. I watched one of his fights and he seems like a decently heavy-handed hitter, but unless he can really get inside the pocket and unload on Grove I don't think he has a shot here. Kendall Grove's natural build and aggression are already a good platform for him as a fighter (185 lbs, 6'6" or something), but he's been improving by leaps and bounds in his tenure as a UFC known/marquis-level fighter. Training with both Team Punishment and Xtreme Couture have paid huge dividends for Grove, and Cote just doesn't have enough to offer in his own development as a fighter to compete. Kendall can stop him in the first or wear him down into the third. This ends with a standing TKO or a fancy Cobra-Kai choke on the ground, Kendall's favor.
Kendall Grove by TKO in the 3rd.
Liam: I take Gonzaga to win this. In Randy's favor, he's never fought a stupid gameplan and I think Gabe Gonzaga is currently overhyped with regards to his "well-roundedness," but Randy just looks a little too frail and a little too scrawny to take on a fighter 16 years younger and 22 pounds heavier than him. Gonzaga's hands are slower, and subsequently I think he's open to lose it on his feet (decision, probably), but overall Gonzaga is the stronger and more solid package as a fighter; while in my opinion a better striker, Randy's true strength still remains his wrestling, and I don't think getting a highly-touted black belt BJJ Mundial champion on his back (even if he could manage to muscle him down) will do him much good. I see this ending with an old-man stumble from Randy, resulting in him being pinned against a cage wall, controlled and beaten into a ref stoppage by Gonzaga.
Gabe by ground-and-pound stoppage in the 1st.
Ben: As much love as I have for Randy for effectively retiring Tim Silvia, I can't see any way he wins this fight. Gonzaga simply does not go to decision. Dude finishes fights with such a vengeance, I think his manager must stash a gaggle of hookers in the dressing room before he heads out to the ring. Chillingly for Randy, his only chance would be to take this to decision. The Natural's striking is good, but not elite, and while he might get a takedown or two against GG, Gonzaga's BJJ is almost preposterously decorated. Just to add another layer of opacity to the dark cloud hovering over Randy's prospects, Gonzaga's shown a disturbing tendency to just knock fools out despite having arguably the strongest grappling credentials in the UFC. Finally, take a look at the challenger's initials. Telling. Good Game Randy.
Gonzaga by TKO, strikes on the ground, Rd. 3.
Welterweight: Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck
Liam: Josh Koscheck may be a brilliant wrestler, but you don't finish fights with wrestling alone. Until proven otherwise KOS is a "decision fighter," and GSP is one of the single WORST people in all of MMA to be scored against in a 15-minute sampling of abilities. Wherever the fight goes, GSP is competent and prepared-- there's next to nobody in the world who's as well-rounded in all aspects of MMA as him. As a result, I think Josh Koscheck's "style matchup" card as being the biggest "rock" in the rock/paper/scissors trinity of wrestling/striking/jiu-jitsu is completely null and void. Even Koscheck's usual strength advantage is probably for naught here, as GSP has shown himself to be freakishly strong in many of his past fights (way stronger than Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk... who GSP out-wrestled, incidentally). I think one of the big reasons people are even imagining any sort of x-factor to the clear on-paper advantage GSP enjoys has to do with Matt Serra. People think GSP has no heart, that the guy he lost to is some kind of a mark. I think Matt Serra may be the single unluckiest and most underrated (great) fighter in all of the sport. Nobody talks about the fact that in his last UFC defeat Matt Serra very nearly knocked out Karo Parisyan in the EXACT same fashion he took out St. Pierre. This fight will truly be the litmus test for how far almuni of "The Ultimate Fighter" have come, and the measure of GSP's real fighting spirit, but I see GSP hurting KOS badly on a takedown attempt, using his size and reach to keep him down, and stopping him by ground-and-pound or a gimme submission.
GSP by submission (RNC) in the 2nd.
Ben: This fight strikes me as way less interesting as people think. GSP's skills overlap with no obvious gaps save a lack of viciousness--he's almost too clinical. Fortunately for GSP, Koscheck couldn't even muster some aggression against a sick and overrated Diego Sanchez. Kos has speed, but his striking is fairly conventional. He's also lacking Matt Hughes's retard strength and GSP's wrestling is too strong to imagine Kos might be able to lay and pray his way through this one. I see a couple fairly lackluster rounds before GSP lands a kick or knee to counter a Koscheck shot in the final round.
GSP by TKO in the 3rd.
Lightweight: Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane
Liam: Huerta versus another UFC newcomer. I think Roger Huerta is overrated and begging to lose, but I don't think an octagon first-timer will be the one to make it happen. Apparently Crane has some ground game, but I don't think we'll be seeing him use it other than defensively; say, trying for a submission when Huerta over-extends himself in an attempt to finish the fight after winning a standing exchange.
Huerta is too active and aggressive on his feet to allow his opponent opportunities to take the initiative and shoot for a takedown-- in addition, as I said before I don't think Huerta will take this fight down unless baited by a hurt opponent. As usual, Huerta will impose a stand-up fight and out-work his opponent (his general M.O.) to win by decision.
Huerta by unanimous decision in the 3rd.
Lightweight: Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Liam: I won't lie, I had to watch tapes on Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino... he seems a very aggressive and explosive fighter, but he's also surprisingly technical-- there's a calculated edge to his wildness you don't generally see in the younger and more "physical" fighters. This being said, Joe Stevenson will beat him. Joe Stevenson has an almost unworkably compact and low-centered build as a ground fighter, he's prodigiously talented, and his composure in a fight is incredible. I think Stevenson is the future of the lightweight division, and I see him becoming extremely dominant in a few years. Still, I think this will be a war, fought largely in the clinch and in guard... but eventually Stevenson will get the sub.
Stevenson by submission in the 2nd.
Middleweight: Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote
Liam: I don't know much about Patrick Cote other than he comes from the Loiseau / St. Pierre high-kicking rat pack, and he's supposed to be a good striker. I watched one of his fights and he seems like a decently heavy-handed hitter, but unless he can really get inside the pocket and unload on Grove I don't think he has a shot here. Kendall Grove's natural build and aggression are already a good platform for him as a fighter (185 lbs, 6'6" or something), but he's been improving by leaps and bounds in his tenure as a UFC known/marquis-level fighter. Training with both Team Punishment and Xtreme Couture have paid huge dividends for Grove, and Cote just doesn't have enough to offer in his own development as a fighter to compete. Kendall can stop him in the first or wear him down into the third. This ends with a standing TKO or a fancy Cobra-Kai choke on the ground, Kendall's favor.
Kendall Grove by TKO in the 3rd.
Whore's Pasta [Ben]
